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A Fragile Recovery

An alarming rise of COVID-19 cases in the US late yesterday and previous news of an increase in Germany, show just how fragile the global recovery will be. The start of a potential second wave in Beijing, China has already started and there are now serious restrictions in parts of the city.

This morning, Latin American cases were up significantly from 90,000 to 150,000 (month over month). In Brazil the seven-day average is now over 30,000. In the southern and western states of the US, numbers surged back up over 25,000 after previously declining.

The food supply chain came into the spotlight with Germany suffering a significant outbreak at an abattoir plant, placing their ‘R’ number over a comfortable level. In the US, an outbreak at a Tyson foods plant in Arkansas resulted in China banning the import of meat products. Last week, they did the same with salmon products.

Export order numbers out of the UK this morning showed that they had fallen to the lowest on record.

Finding new ways to conduct global business will be critical in the months and perhaps years ahead. The WTO released a poignant advertisement in the global broadsheets today. A small child stares out of a window to the street. The caption reads, ‘save human kind by really, really not getting near it.’ Just one extra factor to build into an evolving business model.

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